· Analysis updated 09:51 UTC
Sporting vs La Fama Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Sporting and 2.30 for La Fama, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives La Fama the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
La Fama win
59.8% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 2.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates La Fama to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 21% / 20% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Sporting and 2.30 for La Fama, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–18.2%
- 0–27.2%
- 1–37.2%
- 0–16.3%
Recent form
Sporting
- 2026-10-26T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Caiquetio · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Britannia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-16T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Dakota · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-10T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Britannia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z · H vs La Fama · 2-2 (D)
La Fama
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division di Honor table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is La Fama win, at 59.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.