Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov · Analysis updated 08:21 UTC
Sportist Svoge vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Sportist Svoge and 0.83 for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Sportist Svoge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.4% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sportist Svoge home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.1%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–113.0%
- 2–08.3%
Recent form
Sportist Svoge
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hebar 1918 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftochimic Burgas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vihren · 3-2 (W)
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Marek · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yantra 2019 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nesebar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportist Svoge · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dobrudzha · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · Sportist Svoge 0-0 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (Second League)
- 2026-03-29T13:30:00.000Z · Sportist Svoge 0-1 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (Second League)
- 2025-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · Sportist Svoge 0-1 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (Second League)
- 2025-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · Sportist Svoge 3-0 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (Second League)
- 2024-11-03T12:30:00.000Z · Sportist Svoge 0-1 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (Second League)
- 2023-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · Sportist Svoge 2-1 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (Cup)
- 2021-05-15T12:00:00.000Z · Sportist Svoge 0-0 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (Second League)
- 2020-12-05T12:00:00.000Z · Sportist Svoge 3-0 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (Second League)
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia II | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | Vihren | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 3 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Fratria | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Beroe | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Hebar 1918 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 7 | Yantra 2019 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Rilski Sportist | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 10 | Marek | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 | Nesebar | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 13 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Ludogorets II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 15 | Sportist Svoge | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Montana | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -31 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.