Estadio Ameliano Villeta · Referee D. Lopez · Analysis updated 07:02 UTC
Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sportivo Ameliano and 1.18 for Cerro Porteno, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Sportivo Ameliano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sportivo Ameliano home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cerro Porteno away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Sportivo Ameliano
- 2026-09-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Nacional Asuncion · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertad Asuncion · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Luqueno · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Trinidense · 0-3 (L)
Cerro Porteno
- 2026-09-30T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubio NU · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Trinidense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubio NU · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Asuncion · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 1-0 Cerro Porteno (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2026-04-24T23:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 1-1 Cerro Porteno (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2026-02-25T21:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 0-1 Cerro Porteno (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2025-09-20T22:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 0-2 Cerro Porteno (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2025-07-12T18:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 0-1 Cerro Porteno (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2025-05-21T22:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 0-0 Cerro Porteno (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2025-03-16T21:15:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 0-2 Cerro Porteno (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2024-09-22T00:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 0-1 Cerro Porteno (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2024-08-01T22:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 0-1 Cerro Porteno (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2024-04-15T00:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 0-3 Cerro Porteno (Division Profesional - Apertura)
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 30 |
| 3 | Nacional Asuncion | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | 2 de Mayo | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 27 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -13 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -12 | 11 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.