Estadio Ameliano Villeta · Referee J. Benitez · Analysis updated 02:36 UTC
Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Trinidense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Sportivo Ameliano and 1.15 for Sportivo Trinidense, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Sportivo Ameliano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.7% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sportivo Ameliano home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sportivo Trinidense away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–111.2%
- 0–09.8%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Sportivo Ameliano
- 2026-09-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Nacional Asuncion · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertad Asuncion · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Luqueno · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Trinidense · 0-3 (L)
Sportivo Trinidense
- 2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Nacional Asuncion · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T22:20:00.000Z · H vs Libertad Asuncion · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Luqueno · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 0-3 Sportivo Trinidense (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2026-05-24T20:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 1-2 Sportivo Trinidense (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2026-03-19T23:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 1-1 Sportivo Trinidense (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2025-11-26T20:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 0-0 Sportivo Trinidense (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2025-09-08T21:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 0-1 Sportivo Trinidense (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2025-04-04T23:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 0-1 Sportivo Trinidense (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2025-01-24T21:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 2-1 Sportivo Trinidense (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2024-10-18T22:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 1-0 Sportivo Trinidense (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2024-08-10T20:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 0-3 Sportivo Trinidense (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2024-05-17T21:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Ameliano 0-2 Sportivo Trinidense (Division Profesional - Apertura)
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 33 |
| 2 | Sportivo Trinidense | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 29 |
| 5 | 2 de Mayo | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -13 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.