Estadio Oscar C. Boero · Analysis updated 13:59 UTC
Sportivo Belgrano vs Bartolomé Mitre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Sportivo Belgrano and 0.63 for Bartolomé Mitre, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Sportivo Belgrano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sportivo Belgrano win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sportivo Belgrano home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bartolomé Mitre away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sportivo Belgrano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 30% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Sportivo Belgrano and 0.63 for Bartolomé Mitre, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.2%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.7%
- 0–19.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Double chance — Draw/Away at 1.95 (model 49.5% vs market 46.3%, edge +3.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/AwayValue | 1.95 | 46.3% | 49.5% | 2.02 | +3.2 |
| Match result | Away | 4.75 | 18.8% | 19.2% | 5.21 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.95 | 30.2% | 30.3% | 3.30 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.75 | 51.0% | 50.5% | 1.98 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.11 | 81.4% | 80.8% | 1.24 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 72.3% | 69.7% | 1.43 | -2.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sportivo Belgrano
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Douglas Haig · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Sol de América · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:05:00.000Z · H vs Bartolomé Mitre · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 0-2 (L)
Bartolomé Mitre
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · A vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:05:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Belgrano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Douglas Haig · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sportivo Belgrano win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.