Estadio Oscar C. Boero · Analysis updated 08:54 UTC
Sportivo Belgrano vs Douglas Haig Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Sportivo Belgrano and 1.28 for Douglas Haig, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Douglas Haig the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.3% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sportivo Belgrano home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Douglas Haig away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.8%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–010.8%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–28.8%
Recent form
Sportivo Belgrano
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Douglas Haig · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Sol de América · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:05:00.000Z · H vs Bartolomé Mitre · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 0-2 (L)
Douglas Haig
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Belgrano · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de América · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bartolomé Mitre · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Belgrano 0-4 Douglas Haig (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Belgrano 0-0 Douglas Haig (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-04-17T23:35:00.000Z · Sportivo Belgrano 0-1 Douglas Haig (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-08-10T22:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Belgrano 1-0 Douglas Haig (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-05-18T19:05:00.000Z · Sportivo Belgrano 1-0 Douglas Haig (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-03-16T22:05:00.000Z · Sportivo Belgrano 0-0 Douglas Haig (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-06-30T18:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Belgrano 0-0 Douglas Haig (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-05-06T23:35:00.000Z · Sportivo Belgrano 1-1 Douglas Haig (Torneo Federal A)
- 2023-10-02T23:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Belgrano 3-0 Douglas Haig (Torneo Federal A)
- 2023-08-02T23:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Belgrano 0-1 Douglas Haig (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.