Sportivo Carapeguá vs Benjamín Aceval Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Sportivo Carapeguá and 1.70 for Benjamín Aceval, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Benjamín Aceval the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Benjamín Aceval win

45.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sportivo Carapeguá home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Benjamín Aceval away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benjamín Aceval to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 31% / 24% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Sportivo Carapeguá and 1.70 for Benjamín Aceval, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sportivo Carapeguá win31%

Draw24%

Benjamín Aceval win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.9%
1–29.2%
0–18.1%
2–17.3%
0–26.8%

Recent form

Sportivo Carapeguá

2026-10-02T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Capiata · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente F.b.c. · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tacuary · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tembetary · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-10T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Benjamín Aceval · 2-0 (W)

Benjamín Aceval

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SOL DE America · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-12T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Capiata · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente F.b.c. · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tacuary · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-21T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tembetary · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Division Intermedia table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo Santani	29	18	3	8	22	57
2	General Caballero	29	17	5	7	21	56
3	12 de Junio VH	29	15	9	5	11	54
4	Paraguari AC	30	14	5	11	7	47
5	SOL DE America	30	10	15	5	7	45
6	Independiente F.b.c.	30	11	10	9	5	43
7	Sportivo Carapeguá	30	12	7	11	-6	43
8	Benjamín Aceval	29	12	6	11	4	42
9	Resistencia	29	10	9	10	0	39
10	Atlético Tembetary	30	10	7	13	-7	37
11	Deportivo Capiata	29	8	11	10	-3	35
12	Fernando De La Mora	29	9	7	13	-10	34
13	3 de Noviembre	30	7	9	14	-8	30
14	Guairena FC	30	7	8	15	-15	29
15	Tacuary	29	5	12	12	-14	27
16	Encarnación	30	7	5	18	-14	26

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Benjamín Aceval win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.