Sportivo Carapeguá vs Fernando De La Mora Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Sportivo Carapeguá and 1.33 for Fernando De La Mora, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Fernando De La Mora the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sportivo Carapeguá home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fernando De La Mora away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Sportivo Carapeguá win36%

Draw26%

Fernando De La Mora win38%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.5%
0–19.6%
1–09.4%
1–28.3%
2–18.1%

Recent form

Sportivo Carapeguá

2026-10-23T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Guairena FC · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Resistencia · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-09T22:30:00.000Z · A vs SOL DE America · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-02T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Capiata · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente F.b.c. · 1-0 (W)

Fernando De La Mora

2026-10-20T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Paraguari AC · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs 3 de Noviembre · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-05T22:30:00.000Z · H vs General Caballero · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-28T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Guairena FC · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-23T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Libertad Asuncion · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Carapeguá 2-0 Fernando De La Mora (Division Intermedia)
2026-04-21T13:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Carapeguá 1-0 Fernando De La Mora (Division Intermedia)
2025-07-18T21:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Carapeguá 2-3 Fernando De La Mora (Division Intermedia)
2025-04-14T21:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Carapeguá 0-0 Fernando De La Mora (Division Intermedia)
2024-09-09T21:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Carapeguá 2-1 Fernando De La Mora (Copa Paraguay)
2024-07-21T14:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Carapeguá 0-0 Fernando De La Mora (Division Intermedia)
2024-04-13T13:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Carapeguá 1-0 Fernando De La Mora (Division Intermedia)
2023-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Carapeguá 1-1 Fernando De La Mora (Division Intermedia)
2023-05-19T18:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Carapeguá 1-0 Fernando De La Mora (Division Intermedia)

Division Intermedia table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo Santani	30	19	3	8	24	60
2	General Caballero	30	17	6	7	21	57
3	12 de Junio VH	30	15	10	5	11	55
4	Paraguari AC	30	14	5	11	7	47
5	SOL DE America	30	10	15	5	7	45
6	Independiente F.b.c.	30	11	10	9	5	43
7	Sportivo Carapeguá	30	12	7	11	-6	43
8	Benjamín Aceval	29	12	6	11	4	42
9	Resistencia	29	10	9	10	0	39
10	Atlético Tembetary	30	10	7	13	-7	37
11	Deportivo Capiata	29	8	11	10	-3	35
12	Fernando De La Mora	30	9	7	14	-12	34
13	3 de Noviembre	30	7	9	14	-8	30
14	Guairena FC	30	7	8	15	-15	29
15	Tacuary	29	5	12	12	-14	27
16	Encarnación	30	7	5	18	-14	26

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.