· Analysis updated 02:21 UTC
Sportivo Carapeguá vs Tacuary Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sportivo Carapeguá and 1.07 for Tacuary, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Sportivo Carapeguá the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sportivo Carapeguá win
47.9% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sportivo Carapeguá home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tacuary away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sportivo Carapeguá to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 26% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Sportivo Carapeguá and 1.07 for Tacuary, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–17.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 48.5% vs market 43.0%, edge +5.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.0% | 48.5% | 2.06 | +5.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.85 | 50.5% | 52.1% | 1.92 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Away | 3.40 | 26.3% | 26.5% | 3.77 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.5% | 25.6% | 3.91 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 48.2% | 47.9% | 2.09 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 74.4% | 1.34 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.7% | 73.5% | 1.36 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.0% | 51.5% | 1.94 | -5.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sportivo Carapeguá
- 2026-10-02T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Capiata · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente F.b.c. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tacuary · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tembetary · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Benjamín Aceval · 2-0 (W)
Tacuary
- 2026-10-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Paraguari AC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tembetary · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Benjamín Aceval · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Carapeguá · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs 12 de Junio VH · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Carapeguá 0-0 Tacuary (Division Intermedia)
- 2026-05-31T13:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Carapeguá 2-2 Tacuary (Division Intermedia)
- 2025-08-25T19:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Carapeguá 2-2 Tacuary (Division Intermedia)
- 2025-05-21T18:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Carapeguá 1-2 Tacuary (Division Intermedia)
Division Intermedia table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Santani | 30 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 60 |
| 2 | General Caballero | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 57 |
| 3 | 12 de Junio VH | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 55 |
| 4 | Paraguari AC | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 47 |
| 5 | SOL DE America | 30 | 10 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 45 |
| 6 | Independiente F.b.c. | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 43 |
| 7 | Sportivo Carapeguá | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | -6 | 43 |
| 8 | Benjamín Aceval | 29 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 42 |
| 9 | Resistencia | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 39 |
| 10 | Atlético Tembetary | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | -7 | 37 |
| 11 | Deportivo Capiata | 29 | 8 | 11 | 10 | -3 | 35 |
| 12 | Fernando De La Mora | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -12 | 34 |
| 13 | 3 de Noviembre | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | -8 | 30 |
| 14 | Guairena FC | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 29 |
| 15 | Tacuary | 29 | 5 | 12 | 12 | -14 | 27 |
| 16 | Encarnación | 30 | 7 | 5 | 18 | -14 | 26 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sportivo Carapeguá win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.