Estadio La Perrera · Analysis updated 08:49 UTC
Sportivo Las Parejas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Sportivo Las Parejas and 0.64 for Independiente De Chivilcoy, a combined total of 1.64. That distribution gives Sportivo Las Parejas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
77.0% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sportivo Las Parejas home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Independiente De Chivilcoy away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sportivo Las Parejas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 34% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Sportivo Las Parejas and 0.64 for Independiente De Chivilcoy, a combined 1.64 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.3%
- 0–019.3%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–112.4%
- 2–09.7%
Recent form
Sportivo Las Parejas
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Concepción · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tucuman Central · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Resistencia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Boca Unidos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente De Chivilcoy · 0-0 (D)
Independiente De Chivilcoy
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Escobar · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Defensores de Vilelas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs El Linqueño · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Concepción · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Tucuman Central · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 77.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.