Estadio La Perrera · Analysis updated 00:42 UTC
Sportivo Las Parejas vs Sarmiento Resistencia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Sportivo Las Parejas and 0.60 for Sarmiento Resistencia, a combined total of 1.73. That distribution gives Sportivo Las Parejas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sportivo Las Parejas win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sportivo Las Parejas home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sarmiento Resistencia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sportivo Las Parejas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 32% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for Sportivo Las Parejas and 0.60 for Sarmiento Resistencia, a combined 1.73 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.1%
- 0–017.7%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–011.4%
- 0–110.5%
Recent form
Sportivo Las Parejas
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Concepción · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tucuman Central · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Resistencia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Boca Unidos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente De Chivilcoy · 0-0 (D)
Sarmiento Resistencia
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs El Linqueño · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Concepción · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tucuman Central · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Unidos · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sportivo Las Parejas win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.