Estadio Feliciano Cáceres · Referee D. Lopez · Analysis updated 16:22 UTC
Sportivo Luqueno vs Deportivo Recoleta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Sportivo Luqueno and 1.85 for Deportivo Recoleta, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Deportivo Recoleta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sportivo Luqueno home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Recoleta away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Recoleta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 37% / 22% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Sportivo Luqueno and 1.85 for Deportivo Recoleta, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.8%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.2%
- 0–15.1%
Recent form
Sportivo Luqueno
- 2026-10-01T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Guarani · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Recoleta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Ameliano · 1-2 (L)
Deportivo Recoleta
- 2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Luqueno · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Trinidense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 30 |
| 3 | Nacional Asuncion | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | 2 de Mayo | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 27 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -13 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -12 | 11 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.