· Analysis updated 08:20 UTC
Sportivo Luqueno vs Olimpia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Sportivo Luqueno and 1.73 for Olimpia, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Olimpia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Olimpia win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sportivo Luqueno home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Olimpia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.5%
- 1–111.2%
- 0–210.8%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
Sportivo Luqueno
- 2026-10-23T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Libertad Asuncion · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T22:20:00.000Z · H vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T22:20:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-05T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Trinidense · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-01T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia · 1-1 (D)
Olimpia
- 2026-09-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertad Asuncion · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Luqueno · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Trinidense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Guarani · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-01T22:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Luqueno 1-1 Olimpia (Copa Paraguay)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Luqueno 0-3 Olimpia (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2026-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Luqueno 1-2 Olimpia (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2026-03-17T23:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Luqueno 0-1 Olimpia (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2025-11-21T20:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Luqueno 2-4 Olimpia (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2025-08-30T21:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Luqueno 0-2 Olimpia (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2025-04-19T23:15:00.000Z · Sportivo Luqueno 1-3 Olimpia (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2025-02-09T21:15:00.000Z · Sportivo Luqueno 0-1 Olimpia (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2024-11-28T21:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Luqueno 0-1 Olimpia (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2024-09-15T22:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Luqueno 3-4 Olimpia (Division Profesional - Clausura)
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 33 |
| 2 | Sportivo Trinidense | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 29 |
| 5 | 2 de Mayo | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -13 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Olimpia win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.