Estadio Martin Torres · Referee C. Benitez · Analysis updated 13:04 UTC
Sportivo Trinidense vs 2 de Mayo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Sportivo Trinidense and 1.00 for 2 de Mayo, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Sportivo Trinidense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.3% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sportivo Trinidense home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
2 de Mayo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sportivo Trinidense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Sportivo Trinidense and 1.00 for 2 de Mayo, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–09.5%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–08.7%
Recent form
Sportivo Trinidense
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Guarani · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Recoleta · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Ameliano · 3-0 (W)
2 de Mayo
- 2026-10-17T22:20:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Ameliano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-05T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Porteno · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rubio NU · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-22T21:30:00.000Z · H vs SOL DE America · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 30 |
| 3 | Nacional Asuncion | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | 2 de Mayo | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 27 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -13 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -12 | 11 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.