Estadio Martin Torres · Referee J. Benitez · Analysis updated 00:42 UTC
Sportivo Trinidense vs Club Guarani Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Sportivo Trinidense and 0.83 for Club Guarani, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Sportivo Trinidense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sportivo Trinidense win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sportivo Trinidense home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Club Guarani away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sportivo Trinidense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 28% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Sportivo Trinidense and 0.83 for Club Guarani, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.3%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–011.4%
- 2–010.3%
- 0–19.4%
Recent form
Sportivo Trinidense
- 2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Nacional Asuncion · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T22:20:00.000Z · H vs Libertad Asuncion · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Luqueno · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 2-1 (W)
Club Guarani
- 2026-10-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Rubio NU · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Asuncion · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T22:20:00.000Z · A vs Libertad Asuncion · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Luqueno · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 33 |
| 2 | Sportivo Trinidense | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 29 |
| 5 | 2 de Mayo | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -13 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sportivo Trinidense win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.