Estadio Martin Torres · Referee D. Lopez · Analysis updated 01:15 UTC
Sportivo Trinidense vs Nacional Asuncion Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Sportivo Trinidense and 1.20 for Nacional Asuncion, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Sportivo Trinidense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sportivo Trinidense win
58.5% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sportivo Trinidense home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nacional Asuncion away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–07.6%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Sportivo Trinidense
- 2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Nacional Asuncion · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T22:20:00.000Z · H vs Libertad Asuncion · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Luqueno · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 2-1 (W)
Nacional Asuncion
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T22:20:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Recoleta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente F.b.c. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Ameliano · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T21:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Trinidense 1-1 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2026-05-09T23:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Trinidense 1-2 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2026-03-09T21:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Trinidense 1-1 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2025-11-01T20:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Trinidense 0-0 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2025-10-02T22:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Trinidense 0-0 Nacional Asuncion (Copa Paraguay)
- 2025-08-17T21:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Trinidense 0-2 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2025-05-20T22:00:00.000Z · Sportivo Trinidense 2-0 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2025-03-17T23:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Trinidense 1-1 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2024-09-21T21:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Trinidense 0-2 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2024-07-19T22:30:00.000Z · Sportivo Trinidense 0-0 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 33 |
| 2 | Sportivo Trinidense | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 29 |
| 5 | 2 de Mayo | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -13 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sportivo Trinidense win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.