· Analysis updated 13:46 UTC
Sporty vs Al Jazira Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Sporty and 4.00 for Al Jazira, a combined total of 5.11. That distribution gives Al Jazira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–4 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Jazira win
86.0% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 4.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporty home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Jazira away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Jazira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 86%, against 6% / 8% / 86% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Sporty and 4.00 for Al Jazira, a combined 5.11 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
14%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
94%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–47.1%
- 1–37.1%
- 0–46.5%
- 0–36.4%
- 1–55.7%
Recent form
Sporty
- 2026-08-20T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Burgan · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-17T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Khaitan · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-14T17:25:00.000Z · A vs Shamiya · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-11T17:25:00.000Z · A vs Al Sulaibikhat · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-06T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Sahel · 0-2 (L)
Al Jazira
- 2026-10-24T14:35:00.000Z · A vs Sporty · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Shamiya · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T14:50:00.000Z · A vs Burgan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-20T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Al Sulaibikhat · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-17T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Yarmouk · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 1 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Jazira win, at 86.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–4.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 86% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.