· Analysis updated 18:39 UTC
Sporty vs Burgan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Sporty and 1.93 for Burgan, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives Burgan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Burgan win
52.8% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporty home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Burgan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 25% / 22% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Sporty and 1.93 for Burgan, a combined 3.19 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–17.9%
- 0–27.6%
- 2–16.3%
Recent form
Sporty
- 2026-08-20T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Burgan · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-17T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Khaitan · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-14T17:25:00.000Z · A vs Shamiya · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-11T17:25:00.000Z · A vs Al Sulaibikhat · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-06T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Sahel · 0-2 (L)
Burgan
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 1 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Burgan win, at 52.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.