· Analysis updated 15:46 UTC
Sporty vs Shamiya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Sporty and 1.48 for Shamiya, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Sporty the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporty win
50.9% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporty home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shamiya away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporty to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 21% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Sporty and 1.48 for Shamiya, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Sporty
- 2026-08-20T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Burgan · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-17T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Khaitan · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-14T17:25:00.000Z · A vs Shamiya · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-11T17:25:00.000Z · A vs Al Sulaibikhat · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-06T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Sahel · 0-2 (L)
Shamiya
- 2026-10-24T14:35:00.000Z · H vs Yarmouk · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Jazira · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-08T14:50:00.000Z · H vs Ittihad Al-Shorta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-20T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Khaitan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-17T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Burgan · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-14T17:25:00.000Z · Sporty 4-3 Shamiya (Division 1)
- 2026-02-05T15:00:00.000Z · Sporty 1-2 Shamiya (Division 1)
- 2025-10-20T14:40:00.000Z · Sporty 1-2 Shamiya (Division 1)
Division 1 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporty win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.