· Analysis updated 14:10 UTC
Sprockhovel vs Germania Ratingen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Sprockhovel and 1.41 for Germania Ratingen, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives Sprockhovel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sprockhovel win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sprockhovel home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Germania Ratingen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sprockhovel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 20% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Sprockhovel and 1.41 for Germania Ratingen, a combined 3.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.2%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–06.5%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Sprockhovel
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lippstadt 08 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Schermbeck · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Rheine · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maaslingen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen · 3-4 (L)
Germania Ratingen
- 2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Scherpenberg · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SF Baumberg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Düsseldorf II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Holzheimer SG · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs SC St. Tönis · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sprockhovel win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.