· Analysis updated 14:31 UTC
Sprockhovel vs SSVg Velbert Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Sprockhovel and 0.95 for SSVg Velbert, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Sprockhovel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sprockhovel win
68.1% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sprockhovel home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SSVg Velbert away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sprockhovel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 18% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.33 goals for Sprockhovel and 0.95 for SSVg Velbert, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–18.4%
- 3–07.9%
Recent form
Sprockhovel
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lippstadt 08 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Schermbeck · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Rheine · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maaslingen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen · 3-4 (L)
SSVg Velbert
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs BW Dingden · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Meerbusch · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Büderich · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sonsbeck · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Schonnebeck · 3-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sprockhovel win, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.