Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer · Referee Cristian Ballweg, Germany · Analysis updated 14:13 UTC
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 2.13 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives 1. FC Magdeburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
1. FC Magdeburg win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1. FC Magdeburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.6%
- 1–19.0%
- 0–27.3%
- 0–16.9%
- 1–36.8%
Recent form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hertha BSC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-01T15:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Bochum · 1-1 (D)
1. FC Magdeburg
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Dresden · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hertha BSC · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-06T17:30:00.000Z · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-5 1. FC Magdeburg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2025-08-31T11:30:00.000Z · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5-4 1. FC Magdeburg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2025-03-08T12:00:00.000Z · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 1. FC Magdeburg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2024-10-06T11:30:00.000Z · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-2 1. FC Magdeburg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2024-05-10T16:30:00.000Z · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-0 FC Magdeburg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2023-12-09T12:00:00.000Z · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 FC Magdeburg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2023-03-18T12:00:00.000Z · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-0 FC Magdeburg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2022-09-11T11:30:00.000Z · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-2 FC Magdeburg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2019-04-27T11:00:00.000Z · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-2 FC Magdeburg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2018-11-23T17:30:00.000Z · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 FC Magdeburg (2. Bundesliga)
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Dynamo Dresden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | VfL Osnabrück | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Hannover 96 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1. FC Magdeburg win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.