SpVgg Herne Horsthausen vs Sprockhovel Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for SpVgg Herne Horsthausen and 2.60 for Sprockhovel, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Sprockhovel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sprockhovel win

61.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 2.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sprockhovel away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sprockhovel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 21% / 18% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for SpVgg Herne Horsthausen and 2.60 for Sprockhovel, a combined 4.10 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 72%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Match result (1X2)

SpVgg Herne Horsthausen win21%

Draw18%

Sprockhovel win61%

Double chance 1X

39%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals58%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–28.4%
1–37.3%
1–16.5%
2–26.3%
0–25.6%

Recent form

SpVgg Herne Horsthausen

2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ASC Dortmund · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hiltrup · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-07T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Verl II · 1-2 (L)

Sprockhovel

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lippstadt 08 · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Schermbeck · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Rheine · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maaslingen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen · 3-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · SpVgg Herne Horsthausen 4-3 Sprockhovel (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gievenbeck	12	8	2	2	15	26
2	Vreden	12	7	3	2	7	24
3	Maaslingen	12	7	1	4	6	22
4	Eintracht Rheine	12	6	3	3	7	21
5	Arminia II	12	6	3	3	6	21
6	Lippstadt 08	12	6	2	4	2	20
7	ASC Dortmund	11	6	1	4	6	19
8	Erkenschwick	12	5	4	3	4	19
9	Sprockhovel	12	5	3	4	7	18
10	Preußen Münster II	12	5	3	4	3	18
11	Verl II	12	5	2	5	4	17
12	Westfalia Kinderhaus	11	4	3	4	-3	15
13	Hiltrup	12	4	1	7	-10	13
14	TuS Hordel	12	2	6	4	-4	12
15	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	12	4	0	8	-14	12
16	Ennepetal	12	2	5	5	-10	11
17	Victoria Clarholz	12	2	2	8	-7	8
18	Schermbeck	12	0	2	10	-19	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sprockhovel win, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.