SpVgg Unterhaching vs FC Schweinfurt 05 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for SpVgg Unterhaching and 1.10 for FC Schweinfurt 05, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives SpVgg Unterhaching the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

SpVgg Unterhaching win

59.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.05 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SpVgg Unterhaching home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Schweinfurt 05 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SpVgg Unterhaching to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 21% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for SpVgg Unterhaching and 1.10 for FC Schweinfurt 05, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

SpVgg Unterhaching win59%

Draw21%

FC Schweinfurt 05 win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

2–19.9%
1–19.7%
2–09.0%
1–08.8%
3–16.8%

Recent form

SpVgg Unterhaching

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ansbach · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilzing · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Landsberg · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München II · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Schweinfurt 05 · 1-1 (D)

FC Schweinfurt 05

2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Unterhaching · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Buchbach · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Illertissen · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eichstätt · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nürnberg II · 2-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Bayern table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Memmingen	16	10	3	3	10	33
2	Buchbach	16	8	5	3	7	29
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	15	7	7	1	10	28
4	TSV 1860 München	15	7	6	2	12	27
5	Augsburg II	15	7	3	5	-1	24
6	Illertissen	15	6	5	4	8	23
7	Bayreuth	15	7	1	7	8	22
8	Vilzing	14	5	6	3	1	21
9	Eichstätt	16	6	3	7	-6	21
10	Wacker Burghausen	15	5	5	5	7	20
11	Nürnberg II	14	6	2	6	6	20
12	Bayern München II	13	5	4	4	4	19
13	Eltersdorf	15	4	6	5	-1	18
14	Schwaben Augsburg	15	5	3	7	-9	18
15	FC Schweinfurt 05	15	4	5	6	-10	17
16	Greuther Fürth II	15	3	4	8	-6	13
17	Ansbach	15	3	3	9	-17	12
18	Aubstadt	15	2	5	8	-7	11
19	Landsberg	15	1	6	8	-16	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SpVgg Unterhaching win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.