NT Stadium · Referee W. Jumpaoon · Analysis updated 10:51 UTC
Sri Lanka vs Bhutan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for Sri Lanka and 1.14 for Bhutan, a combined total of 3.79. That distribution gives Sri Lanka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sri Lanka win
69.4% probability
Expected goals
2.65 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sri Lanka home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Bhutan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sri Lanka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 16% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.65 goals for Sri Lanka and 1.14 for Bhutan, a combined 3.79 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 3–18.0%
- 2–07.9%
- 3–07.0%
- 1–16.8%
Recent form
Sri Lanka
- 2026-10-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mauritius · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mauritius · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Seychelles · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Seychelles · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-06-08T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bhutan · 4-1 (W)
Bhutan
- 2026-06-08T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Sri Lanka · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-06-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambodia · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-31T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Brunei · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-11-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Yemen · 1-7 (L)
- 2025-11-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs India · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sri Lanka win, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.