Sri Lanka vs Chinese Taipei Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.54 expected goals for Sri Lanka and 1.05 for Chinese Taipei, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Sri Lanka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sri Lanka win

69.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.54 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sri Lanka home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Chinese Taipei away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sri Lanka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 17% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.54 goals for Sri Lanka and 1.05 for Chinese Taipei, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sri Lanka win70%

Draw17%

Chinese Taipei win14%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

30%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

2–19.4%
2–09.0%
3–17.9%
3–07.6%
1–17.4%

Recent form

Sri Lanka

2026-10-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mauritius · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mauritius · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Seychelles · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Seychelles · 3-0 (W)
2026-06-08T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bhutan · 4-1 (W)

Chinese Taipei

2026-03-31T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Sri Lanka · 1-3 (L)
2025-11-18T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Turkmenistan · 1-3 (L)
2025-10-14T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Thailand · 1-6 (L)
2025-10-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Thailand · 0-2 (L)
2025-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Indonesia · 0-6 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Asian Cup - Qualification table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tajikistan	6	4	2	0	11	14
2	Philippines	6	4	2	0	10	14
3	Maldives	6	1	0	5	-10	3
4	Timor-Leste	6	1	0	5	-11	3
1	Yemen	6	4	2	0	19	14
2	Lebanon	6	4	1	1	12	13
3	Bhutan	6	1	1	4	-12	4
4	Brunei	6	1	0	5	-19	3
1	Singapore	6	4	2	0	4	14
2	Hong Kong	6	2	2	2	0	8
3	Bangladesh	6	1	2	3	-2	5
4	India	6	1	2	3	-2	5
1	Thailand	6	5	0	1	11	15
2	Turkmenistan	6	4	0	2	4	12
3	Sri Lanka	6	3	0	3	-1	9
4	Chinese Taipei	6	0	0	6	-14	0
1	Syria	6	6	0	0	19	18
2	Myanmar	6	4	0	2	-3	12
3	Afghanistan	6	0	2	4	-7	2
4	Pakistan	6	0	2	4	-9	2
1	Vietnam	6	6	0	0	15	18
2	Malaysia	6	3	0	3	0	9
3	Laos	6	2	0	4	-12	6
4	Nepal	6	1	0	5	-3	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sri Lanka win, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.