Sri Lanka vs Thailand Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sri Lanka and 1.88 for Thailand, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Thailand the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Thailand win

47.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sri Lanka home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Thailand away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thailand to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 31% / 22% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Sri Lanka and 1.88 for Thailand, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sri Lanka win31%

Draw22%

Thailand win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–19.7%
1–29.1%
2–17.2%
2–26.7%
0–16.6%

Recent form

Sri Lanka

2026-10-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mauritius · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mauritius · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Seychelles · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Seychelles · 3-0 (W)
2026-06-08T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bhutan · 4-1 (W)

Thailand

2026-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Indonesia · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-02T09:40:00.000Z · H vs Philippines · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-29T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Pakistan · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vietnam · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Asian Cup - Qualification table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tajikistan	6	4	2	0	11	14
2	Philippines	6	4	2	0	10	14
3	Maldives	6	1	0	5	-10	3
4	Timor-Leste	6	1	0	5	-11	3
1	Yemen	6	4	2	0	19	14
2	Lebanon	6	4	1	1	12	13
3	Bhutan	6	1	1	4	-12	4
4	Brunei	6	1	0	5	-19	3
1	Singapore	6	4	2	0	4	14
2	Hong Kong	6	2	2	2	0	8
3	Bangladesh	6	1	2	3	-2	5
4	India	6	1	2	3	-2	5
1	Thailand	6	5	0	1	11	15
2	Turkmenistan	6	4	0	2	4	12
3	Sri Lanka	6	3	0	3	-1	9
4	Chinese Taipei	6	0	0	6	-14	0
1	Syria	6	6	0	0	19	18
2	Myanmar	6	4	0	2	-3	12
3	Afghanistan	6	0	2	4	-7	2
4	Pakistan	6	0	2	4	-9	2
1	Vietnam	6	6	0	0	15	18
2	Malaysia	6	3	0	3	0	9
3	Laos	6	2	0	4	-12	6
4	Nepal	6	1	0	5	-3	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Thailand win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.