Gelora Sriwijaya Jakabaring · Analysis updated 06:57 UTC
Sriwijaya FC vs Garudayaksa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.48 expected goals for Sriwijaya FC and 2.03 for Garudayaksa, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Garudayaksa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Garudayaksa win
74.2% probability
Expected goals
0.48 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sriwijaya FC home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Garudayaksa away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Garudayaksa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 8% / 18% / 74% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.48 goals for Sriwijaya FC and 2.03 for Garudayaksa, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
26%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–216.8%
- 0–116.6%
- 0–311.4%
- 0–08.2%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Sriwijaya FC
- 2026-05-02T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Isenmulang Kalteng · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-25T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Garudayaksa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSMS Medan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-12T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persekat · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSPS · 0-6 (L)
Garudayaksa
- 2026-10-21T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Bali United · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Arema FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persita · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persebaya Surabaya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persik Kediri · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T08:30:00.000Z · Sriwijaya FC 0-3 Garudayaksa (Liga 2)
- 2025-11-11T12:00:00.000Z · Sriwijaya FC 2-7 Garudayaksa (Liga 2)
- 2025-09-14T08:30:00.000Z · Sriwijaya FC 0-2 Garudayaksa (Liga 2)
Liga 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSPS | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Tornado Pekanbaru | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | Deltras | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | PSMS Medan | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 14 |
| 5 | Persela Lamongan | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | RANS Nusantara | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 7 | Barito Putera | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Persikad Depok FC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Persipura Jayapura | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 |
| 10 | Sumsel United | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | PSIS Semarang | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 12 | Semen Padang | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | Persis Solo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | Persiraja Banda Aceh | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | PSGC Ciamis | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Bekasi City | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 17 | Dejan | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Persiku Kudus | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -18 | 1 |
| 19 | Persiba Balikpapan | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -14 | 0 |
| 20 | PSBS Biak Numfor | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -36 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Garudayaksa win, at 74.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.