Sriwijaya FC vs PSPS Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Sriwijaya FC and 2.10 for PSPS, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives PSPS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

PSPS win

61.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.06 – 2.10

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sriwijaya FC home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
PSPS away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates PSPS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 18% / 21% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Sriwijaya FC and 2.10 for PSPS, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sriwijaya FC win18%

Draw21%

PSPS win61%

Double chance 1X

39%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

82%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–29.9%
1–19.4%
0–29.3%
0–18.9%
1–36.9%

Recent form

Sriwijaya FC

2026-05-02T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Isenmulang Kalteng · 0-4 (L)
2026-04-25T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Garudayaksa · 0-3 (L)
2026-04-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSMS Medan · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-12T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persekat · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSPS · 0-6 (L)

PSPS

2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persiraja Banda Aceh · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSIS Semarang · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-02T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Bekasi City · 2-3 (L)
2026-04-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sumsel United · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persekat · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persela Lamongan	4	4	0	0	10	12
2	Deltras	4	4	0	0	9	12
3	PSMS Medan	4	3	1	0	11	10
4	PSPS	4	3	0	1	2	9
5	Persikad Depok FC	4	3	0	1	-1	9
6	Tornado Pekanbaru	4	2	2	0	3	8
7	RANS Nusantara	4	2	1	1	4	7
8	PSIS Semarang	3	2	1	0	2	7
9	Semen Padang	4	2	1	1	2	7
10	PSGC Ciamis	4	2	0	2	0	6
11	Persipura Jayapura	4	1	2	1	1	5
12	Persis Solo	4	1	1	2	3	4
13	Barito Putera	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Dejan	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Sumsel United	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Bekasi City	4	0	1	3	-3	1
17	Persiku Kudus	3	0	1	2	-7	1
18	Persiraja Banda Aceh	4	0	0	4	-4	0
19	Persiba Balikpapan	4	0	0	4	-5	0
20	PSBS Biak Numfor	4	0	0	4	-22	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is PSPS win, at 61.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.