· Analysis updated 03:05 UTC
SS Reyes II vs Parla Escuela Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for SS Reyes II and 1.76 for Parla Escuela, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives SS Reyes II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SS Reyes II win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SS Reyes II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SS Reyes II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 21% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for SS Reyes II and 1.76 for Parla Escuela, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 73%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.9%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
SS Reyes II
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Aranjuez · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Pozuelo Alarcón · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Parla Escuela · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Villanueva Pardillo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Unión Adarve · 0-2 (L)
Parla Escuela
- 2024-11-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sonseca · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Móstoles | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | Las Rozas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Colonia Moscardó | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 5 | Galapagar | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Cala Pozuelo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Unión Adarve | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Trival Valderas | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Leganés II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Torrejón | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Fuenlabrada | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | RC Alcobendas | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Real Aranjuez | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Parla Escuela | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | SS Reyes II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Alcobendas Sport | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Villanueva Pardillo | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -17 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SS Reyes II win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.