SS Reyes vs Alcoyano Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for SS Reyes and 0.70 for Alcoyano, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives SS Reyes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

SS Reyes win

50.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.28 – 0.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SS Reyes home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alcoyano away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SS Reyes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 29% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for SS Reyes and 0.70 for Alcoyano, a combined 1.98 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

SS Reyes win50%

Draw29%

Alcoyano win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals59%

Over 2.5 goals32%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

1–017.7%
0–013.8%
1–112.4%
2–011.3%
0–19.7%

Recent form

SS Reyes

2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Salamanca UDS · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Ávila · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnástica Segoviana · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Numancia · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Valladolid II · 1-0 (W)

Alcoyano

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ucam Murcia · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mallorca II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportiva Minera · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Poblense · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Castellón II · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CD Coria	4	3	1	0	5	10
2	UD Logroñés	4	3	1	0	4	10
3	UD Ourense	4	3	1	0	4	10
4	Real Jaén	4	3	0	1	2	9
5	Águilas	4	2	2	0	2	8
6	Poblense	4	2	2	0	2	8
7	SD Logroñés	2	2	0	0	2	6
8	Real Oviedo II	4	2	0	2	-2	6
9	SS Reyes	4	1	2	1	1	5
10	Estepona	2	1	1	0	2	4
11	Atlético Baleares	4	1	1	2	1	4
12	Deportivo Alavés II	2	1	0	1	0	3
13	Xerez	2	0	2	0	0	2
14	Conquense	4	0	2	2	-3	2
15	Reddis	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Deportiva Minera	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Real Madrid III	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Alcoyano	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Coruxo	2	0	1	1	-3	1
20	Castellón II	2	0	0	2	-2	0
21	Utebo	2	0	0	2	-2	0
22	Numancia	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Tudelano	2	0	0	2	-2	0
24	Getafe II	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SS Reyes win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.