· Analysis updated 07:42 UTC
SS Reyes vs Real Madrid III Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for SS Reyes and 0.45 for Real Madrid III, a combined total of 1.58. That distribution gives SS Reyes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 21% for over 2.5 goals and 25% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
SS Reyes win
52.7% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SS Reyes home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Madrid III away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SS Reyes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 33% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for SS Reyes and 0.45 for Real Madrid III, a combined 1.58 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–023.3%
- 0–020.7%
- 2–013.1%
- 1–110.5%
- 0–19.3%
Recent form
SS Reyes
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Salamanca UDS · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Ávila · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnástica Segoviana · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Numancia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Valladolid II · 1-0 (W)
Real Madrid III
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RSD Alcalá · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tordesillas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Paso · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs A Madrid III · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conquense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | A Madrid III | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | Real Valladolid II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Numancia | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | SS Reyes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Salamanca UDS | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | CF Talavera | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Navalcarnero | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Atlético Tordesillas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | RSD Alcalá | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Guadalajara | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Real Ávila | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Atlético Paso | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Albacete II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -12 | 6 |
| 16 | Real Madrid III | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Calvo Sotelo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Getafe II | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SS Reyes win, at 52.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 25% and over 2.5 goals at 21%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.