SSV Merten vs Porz Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.22 expected goals for SSV Merten and 1.48 for Porz, a combined total of 4.70. That distribution gives SSV Merten the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

SSV Merten win

71.5% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.22 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SSV Merten home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Porz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SSV Merten to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 14% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.22 goals for SSV Merten and 1.48 for Porz, a combined 4.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

SSV Merten win72%

Draw14%

Porz win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals84%

Over 3.5 goals68%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

3–17.5%
2–17.0%
4–16.0%
3–25.5%
2–25.1%

Recent form

SSV Merten

2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hennef 05 · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs TuS BW Königsdorf · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Wegberg-Beeck · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Hohkeppel · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bornheim · 3-4 (L)

Porz

2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Düren Merzenich · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hennef 05 · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs TuS BW Königsdorf · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Wegberg-Beeck · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Hohkeppel · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z · SSV Merten 8-3 Porz (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)
2025-11-30T14:00:00.000Z · SSV Merten 3-0 Porz (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)
2025-04-27T13:00:00.000Z · SSV Merten 4-1 Porz (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)
2024-10-06T13:00:00.000Z · SSV Merten 6-3 Porz (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)

Oberliga - Mittelrhein table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wegberg-Beeck	9	7	1	1	12	22
2	SSV Merten	9	6	1	2	18	19
3	Eintracht Hohkeppel	9	5	2	2	8	17
4	Frechen	9	5	2	2	4	17
5	Düren Merzenich	9	5	1	3	2	16
6	Lindenthal-Hohenlind	9	4	3	2	1	15
7	Fortuna Köln II	8	4	1	3	4	13
8	VfL Vichttal	9	3	3	3	7	12
9	Bornheim	9	4	0	5	0	12
10	Siegburger SV	9	3	2	4	-1	11
11	Hürth	9	2	4	3	-4	10
12	Chlodwig Zulpich	9	3	1	5	-5	10
13	Hennef 05	9	3	1	5	-6	10
14	TuS BW Königsdorf	8	2	0	6	-23	6
15	Porz	9	1	2	6	-7	5
16	Neunkirchen-Seelscheid	9	1	2	6	-10	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SSV Merten win, at 71.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.