· Analysis updated 17:16 UTC
SSV Ulm 1846 vs Bayern München II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for SSV Ulm 1846 and 1.22 for Bayern München II, a combined total of 4.23. That distribution gives SSV Ulm 1846 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SSV Ulm 1846 win
73.1% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SSV Ulm 1846 home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bayern München II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SSV Ulm 1846 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 14% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for SSV Ulm 1846 and 1.22 for Bayern München II, a combined 4.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.1%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–06.6%
- 3–06.6%
- 4–16.0%
Recent form
SSV Ulm 1846
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hessen Kassel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Trier · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Sandhausen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Frankfurt · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs VfR Aalen · 0-2 (L)
Bayern München II
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Aubstadt · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Augsburg II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Buchbach · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eichstätt · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Illertissen · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SSV Ulm 1846 win, at 73.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.