· Analysis updated 14:38 UTC
SSVg Velbert vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for SSVg Velbert and 2.75 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 5.18. That distribution gives Borussia Mönchengladbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 85% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Borussia Mönchengladbach win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
2.43 – 2.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SSVg Velbert home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Borussia Mönchengladbach away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 36% / 18% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.43 goals for SSVg Velbert and 2.75 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined 5.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.3%
- 2–35.8%
- 1–25.2%
- 3–25.1%
- 1–34.8%
Recent form
SSVg Velbert
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs BW Dingden · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Meerbusch · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Büderich · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sonsbeck · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Schonnebeck · 3-5 (L)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC St. Pauli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Elversberg · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Borussia Mönchengladbach win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 85% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.