· Analysis updated 17:05 UTC
SSVg Velbert vs Holzheimer SG Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.03 expected goals for SSVg Velbert and 1.43 for Holzheimer SG, a combined total of 4.45. That distribution gives SSVg Velbert the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
SSVg Velbert win
69.6% probability
Expected goals
3.03 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SSVg Velbert home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Holzheimer SG away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SSVg Velbert to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 15% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.03 goals for SSVg Velbert and 1.43 for Holzheimer SG, a combined 4.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.7%
- 2–17.6%
- 4–15.8%
- 3–25.5%
- 2–25.4%
Recent form
SSVg Velbert
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs BW Dingden · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Meerbusch · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Büderich · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sonsbeck · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Schonnebeck · 3-5 (L)
Holzheimer SG
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BW Dingden · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Büderich · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Schonnebeck · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wuppertaler SV · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Germania Ratingen · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Niederrhein table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schonnebeck | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | SSVg Velbert | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Fortuna Düsseldorf II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 17 |
| 4 | BW Dingden | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | SF Baumberg | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Solingen-Wald | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 7 | SC St. Tönis | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Germania Ratingen | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | KFC Uerdingen 05 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 |
| 11 | Sonsbeck | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | Monheim | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Wuppertaler SV | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Scherpenberg | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 | SW Essen | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 6 |
| 16 | Büderich | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 6 |
| 17 | Holzheimer SG | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 4 |
| 18 | Meerbusch | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SSVg Velbert win, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.