· Analysis updated 13:27 UTC
SSVg Velbert vs Wuppertaler SV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for SSVg Velbert and 1.43 for Wuppertaler SV, a combined total of 3.46. That distribution gives SSVg Velbert the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SSVg Velbert win
51.6% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SSVg Velbert home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wuppertaler SV away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–26.5%
- 2–06.5%
Recent form
SSVg Velbert
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs BW Dingden · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Meerbusch · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Büderich · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sonsbeck · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Schonnebeck · 3-5 (L)
Wuppertaler SV
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Holzheimer SG · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Düsseldorf II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SC St. Tönis · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs BW Dingden · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Büderich · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · SSVg Velbert 1-0 Wuppertaler SV (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
- 2026-01-24T13:00:00.000Z · SSVg Velbert 1-0 Wuppertaler SV (Regionalliga - West)
- 2025-08-01T17:30:00.000Z · SSVg Velbert 0-3 Wuppertaler SV (Regionalliga - West)
- 2024-07-17T17:30:00.000Z · SSVg Velbert 2-1 Wuppertaler SV (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-03-16T13:00:00.000Z · SSVg Velbert 0-5 Wuppertaler SV (Regionalliga - West)
- 2023-09-29T17:30:00.000Z · SSVg Velbert 1-0 Wuppertaler SV (Regionalliga - West)
- 2020-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · SSVg Velbert 1-4 Wuppertaler SV (Friendlies Clubs)
Oberliga - Niederrhein table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schonnebeck | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | SSVg Velbert | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Fortuna Düsseldorf II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 17 |
| 4 | BW Dingden | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | SF Baumberg | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Solingen-Wald | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 7 | SC St. Tönis | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Germania Ratingen | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | KFC Uerdingen 05 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 |
| 11 | Sonsbeck | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | Monheim | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Wuppertaler SV | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Scherpenberg | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 | SW Essen | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 6 |
| 16 | Büderich | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 6 |
| 17 | Holzheimer SG | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 4 |
| 18 | Meerbusch | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SSVg Velbert win, at 51.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.