Churchill Reserve · Analysis updated 16:51 UTC
St. Albans Saints vs Sunshine Georgies Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for St. Albans Saints and 1.53 for Sunshine Georgies, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Sunshine Georgies the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sunshine Georgies win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
St. Albans Saints home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sunshine Georgies away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sunshine Georgies to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 28% / 26% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for St. Albans Saints and 1.53 for Sunshine Georgies, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–07.9%
Recent form
St. Albans Saints
- 2026-08-29T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Dandenong Thunder · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Green Gully · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Bentleigh Greens · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T05:30:00.000Z · A vs South Melbourne · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-24T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Hume City · 3-2 (W)
Sunshine Georgies
- 2026-08-29T05:00:00.000Z · H vs South Melbourne · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Hume City · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Avondale · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-01T05:15:00.000Z · A vs Altona Magic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-24T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Heidelberg United · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Victoria NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 54 |
| 2 | Preston Lions | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 51 |
| 3 | Hume City | 26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 49 |
| 4 | Avondale | 26 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 47 |
| 5 | South Melbourne | 26 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 41 |
| 6 | Heidelberg United | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 40 |
| 7 | Sunshine Georgies | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 38 |
| 8 | Dandenong City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 37 |
| 9 | St. Albans Saints | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | -7 | 34 |
| 10 | Melbourne City II | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 30 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -14 | 28 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -24 | 24 |
| 13 | Green Gully | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -29 | 18 |
| 14 | Dandenong Thunder | 26 | 4 | 3 | 19 | -42 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sunshine Georgies win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.