· Analysis updated 07:27 UTC
St. Andrews vs Santa Lucía Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for St. Andrews and 0.84 for Santa Lucía, a combined total of 1.62. That distribution gives Santa Lucía the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.7% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santa Lucía away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 31% / 35% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for St. Andrews and 0.84 for Santa Lucía, a combined 1.62 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 22% and both teams to score at 31%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–019.7%
- 0–116.6%
- 1–015.4%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–27.0%
Recent form
St. Andrews
Santa Lucía
- 2026-09-18T16:15:00.000Z · A vs St. Andrews · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vittoriosa Stars · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-19T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Mtarfa · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-04-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Zurrieq · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Mgarr United · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-14T15:30:00.000Z · St. Andrews 2-1 Santa Lucía (Challenge League)
- 2024-11-24T17:30:00.000Z · St. Andrews 0-2 Santa Lucía (Challenge League)
- 2022-03-16T16:00:00.000Z · St. Andrews 1-2 Santa Lucía (FA Trophy)
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarxien Rainbows | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Fgura United | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Naxxar Lions | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Swieqi United | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Pietà Hotspurs | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Mgarr United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Melita | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Zurrieq | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | St. Andrews | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Victoria Hotspurs | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Santa Lucía | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Vittoriosa Stars | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | Sirens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Attard | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Zebbug Rangers | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Gudja United | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.