· Analysis updated 12:16 UTC
St. Gallen II vs Freienbach Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.24 expected goals for St. Gallen II and 1.19 for Freienbach, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives St. Gallen II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
St. Gallen II win
61.1% probability
Expected goals
2.24 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
St. Gallen II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Freienbach away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St. Gallen II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 20% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.24 goals for St. Gallen II and 1.19 for Freienbach, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–07.3%
- 3–17.2%
Recent form
St. Gallen II
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Freienbach · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Winterthur II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Collina d'Oro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mendrisio · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kosova · 5-1 (W)
Freienbach
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Gallen II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Eschen / Mauren · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Widnau · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Winterthur II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Collina d'Oro · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Gallen II | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 25 |
| 2 | Tuggen | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Taverne | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | Baden | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 19 |
| 5 | Thalwil | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Collina d'Oro | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Kosova | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 | Dietikon | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Gossau | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 | Wettswil-Bonstetten | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Eschen / Mauren | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 12 | Locarno | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Freienbach | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Mendrisio | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Winterthur II | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
| 16 | Widnau | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -19 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is St. Gallen II win, at 61.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.