· Analysis updated 13:21 UTC
St. Gallen II vs Taverne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for St. Gallen II and 2.10 for Taverne, a combined total of 4.06. That distribution gives Taverne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.7% probability
Expected goals
1.97 – 2.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
St. Gallen II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Taverne away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Taverne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 37% / 21% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for St. Gallen II and 2.10 for Taverne, a combined 4.06 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–17.1%
- 2–17.0%
- 1–35.2%
Recent form
St. Gallen II
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Freienbach · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Winterthur II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Collina d'Oro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mendrisio · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kosova · 5-1 (W)
Taverne
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Thalwil · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Baden · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gossau · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Widnau · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Locarno · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Gallen II | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 25 |
| 2 | Tuggen | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Taverne | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | Baden | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 19 |
| 5 | Thalwil | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Collina d'Oro | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Kosova | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 | Dietikon | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Gossau | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 | Wettswil-Bonstetten | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Eschen / Mauren | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 12 | Locarno | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Freienbach | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Mendrisio | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Winterthur II | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
| 16 | Widnau | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -19 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.