Willawong · Analysis updated 23:30 UTC
St George Willawong vs Redlands United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.91 expected goals for St George Willawong and 2.21 for Redlands United, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Redlands United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Redlands United win
66.8% probability
Expected goals
0.91 – 2.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
St George Willawong home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Redlands United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 14% / 19% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.91 goals for St George Willawong and 2.21 for Redlands United, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 53%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.8%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–18.9%
- 0–37.9%
Recent form
St George Willawong
- 2026-08-15T06:15:00.000Z · H vs SC Wanderers · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-09T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Logan Lightning · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-02T06:30:00.000Z · H vs Brisbane Strikers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Caboolture · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-11T06:30:00.000Z · H vs Robina City · 0-2 (L)
Redlands United
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Queensland Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Strikers | 22 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 54 |
| 2 | Broadbeach United | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 31 | 52 |
| 3 | SC Wanderers | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 37 |
| 4 | Ipswich | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 35 |
| 5 | Robina City | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 32 |
| 6 | Caboolture | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 31 |
| 7 | Redlands United | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 8 | Holland Park Hawks | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -8 | 30 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -2 | 27 |
| 10 | North Star | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -19 | 21 |
| 11 | St George Willawong | 22 | 4 | 1 | 17 | -39 | 13 |
| 12 | Capalaba | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | -36 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Redlands United win, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.