McDiarmid Park · Referee S. McLean · Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
ST Johnstone vs Hibernian Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for ST Johnstone and 2.08 for Hibernian, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives ST Johnstone the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
60.1% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ST Johnstone home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hibernian away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–17.0%
- 1–16.8%
- 2–35.1%
Recent form
ST Johnstone
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Falkirk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hibernian · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundee · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-2 (L)
Hibernian
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Falkirk · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ross County · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · ST Johnstone 2-1 Hibernian (Premiership)
- 2025-03-29T15:00:00.000Z · ST Johnstone 0-3 Hibernian (Premiership)
- 2025-01-02T15:00:00.000Z · ST Johnstone 1-1 Hibernian (Premiership)
- 2024-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · ST Johnstone 0-2 Hibernian (Premiership)
- 2024-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · ST Johnstone 1-3 Hibernian (Premiership)
- 2024-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · ST Johnstone 2-1 Hibernian (Premiership)
- 2023-12-16T15:00:00.000Z · ST Johnstone 1-0 Hibernian (Premiership)
- 2023-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · ST Johnstone 0-2 Hibernian (Premiership)
- 2023-04-22T14:00:00.000Z · ST Johnstone 1-1 Hibernian (Premiership)
- 2022-10-21T18:30:00.000Z · ST Johnstone 2-1 Hibernian (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 24 |
| 2 | Rangers | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Aberdeen | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | ST Mirren | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 10 |
| 9 | Falkirk | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 10 | Motherwell | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 12 | Hibernian | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.