McDiarmid Park · Analysis updated 22:45 UTC
ST Johnstone vs Hibernian Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for ST Johnstone and 1.75 for Hibernian, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives ST Johnstone the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.
Model pick
ST Johnstone or Draw
61.2% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–18.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.3%
Why the model likes this
Hibernian away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ST Johnstone to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for ST Johnstone and 1.75 for Hibernian, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 68%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
ST Johnstone
Hibernian
- 2026-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkendija · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Shkendija · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Motherwell · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Malisheva · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | ST Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Dundee | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | ST Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Hibernian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Rangers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 10 | Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 11 | Dundee Utd | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.