· Analysis updated 10:31 UTC
St Joseph S Fc vs Lions Gibraltar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.16 expected goals for St Joseph S Fc and 1.17 for Lions Gibraltar, a combined total of 4.32. That distribution gives St Joseph S Fc the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
St Joseph S Fc win
76.3% probability
Expected goals
3.16 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
St Joseph S Fc home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lions Gibraltar away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.1%
- 2–17.7%
- 3–07.0%
- 2–06.6%
- 4–16.4%
Recent form
St Joseph S Fc
- 2026-10-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hound Dogs · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lions Gibraltar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lynx · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Europa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Mons Calpe · 2-1 (W)
Lions Gibraltar
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Glacis United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Europa Point · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hound Dogs · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs College 1975 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Magpies · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T14:30:00.000Z · St Joseph S Fc 3-3 Lions Gibraltar (Premier Division)
- 2026-02-07T18:30:00.000Z · St Joseph S Fc 4-0 Lions Gibraltar (Premier Division)
- 2025-10-26T18:30:00.000Z · St Joseph S Fc 3-1 Lions Gibraltar (Premier Division)
- 2025-05-03T14:30:00.000Z · St Joseph S Fc 6-0 Lions Gibraltar (Premier Division)
- 2025-02-15T18:30:00.000Z · St Joseph S Fc 1-1 Lions Gibraltar (Rock Cup)
- 2024-11-23T15:30:00.000Z · St Joseph S Fc 3-1 Lions Gibraltar (Premier Division)
- 2024-10-20T17:30:00.000Z · St Joseph S Fc 2-1 Lions Gibraltar (Premier Division)
- 2024-01-20T18:30:00.000Z · St Joseph S Fc 3-2 Lions Gibraltar (Premier Division)
- 2023-09-23T14:30:00.000Z · St Joseph S Fc 5-1 Lions Gibraltar (Premier Division)
- 2022-10-02T16:30:00.000Z · St Joseph S Fc 4-1 Lions Gibraltar (Premier Division)
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magpies | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 2 | St Joseph S Fc | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 3 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 4 | Mons Calpe | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Glacis United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Lions Gibraltar | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Europa Point | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Europa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | College 1975 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Hound Dogs | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 11 | Lynx | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is St Joseph S Fc win, at 76.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.