· Analysis updated 22:15 UTC
St Joseph S Fc vs Mons Calpe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.22 expected goals for St Joseph S Fc and 1.01 for Mons Calpe, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives St Joseph S Fc the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
St Joseph S Fc win
64.8% probability
Expected goals
2.22 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
St Joseph S Fc home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mons Calpe away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St Joseph S Fc to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 19% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.22 goals for St Joseph S Fc and 1.01 for Mons Calpe, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.8%
- 1–18.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 3–17.3%
Recent form
St Joseph S Fc
- 2026-10-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hound Dogs · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lions Gibraltar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lynx · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Europa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Mons Calpe · 2-1 (W)
Mons Calpe
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Europa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln Red Imps FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Glacis United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T19:00:00.000Z · A vs St Joseph S Fc · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Europa · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magpies | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 2 | St Joseph S Fc | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 3 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 4 | Mons Calpe | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Glacis United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Lions Gibraltar | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Europa Point | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Europa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | College 1975 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Hound Dogs | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 11 | Lynx | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is St Joseph S Fc win, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.