Hasely Crawford Stadium · Referee G. J. Gonzalez · Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
St. Kitts and Nevis vs Cuba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for St. Kitts and Nevis and 1.79 for Cuba, a combined total of 3.82. That distribution gives St. Kitts and Nevis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.2% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
St. Kitts and Nevis home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cuba away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St. Kitts and Nevis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 21% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for St. Kitts and Nevis and 1.79 for Cuba, a combined 3.82 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.1%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–27.1%
- 3–15.5%
Recent form
St. Kitts and Nevis
- 2026-10-05T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cuba · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Cuba · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Grenada · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Bonaire · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-30T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Solomon Islands · 4-2 (W)
Cuba
- 2026-10-02T21:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Kitts and Nevis · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-28T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Bonaire · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Grenada · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-03-29T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Dominican Republic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-26T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Martinique · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2024-11-18T20:00:00.000Z · St. Kitts and Nevis 0-4 Cuba (CONCACAF Nations League)
- 2024-11-14T23:00:00.000Z · St. Kitts and Nevis 2-1 Cuba (CONCACAF Nations League)
CONCACAF Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guyana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12 |
| 2 | Montserrat | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 3 | St. Vincent / Grenadines | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 4 | Curaçao | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 5 | Barbados | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Saint Martin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 9 |
| 7 | St. Lucia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 8 | Puerto Rico | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Haiti | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Aruba | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Dominican Republic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | US Virgin Islands | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Cuba | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 14 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 15 | Guatemala | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 16 | Jamaica | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 17 | Suriname | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 18 | Antigua and Barbuda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| 19 | Costa Rica | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 20 | French Guyana | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 21 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 22 | Honduras | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 23 | Martinique | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 24 | Guadeloupe | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 | El Salvador | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 4 |
| 26 | Bonaire | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 | Belize | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | Grenada | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 29 | Trinidad and Tobago | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 | Cayman Islands | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 31 | Dominica | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 32 | Bermuda | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| 33 | Sint Maarten | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| 34 | Nicaragua | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
| 35 | Anguilla | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
| 36 | British Virgin Islands | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
| 37 | Bahamas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.