Warner Park · Referee Cristhofer Corado · Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
St. Kitts and Nevis vs Grenada Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for St. Kitts and Nevis and 2.83 for Grenada, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Grenada the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Grenada win
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 2.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
St. Kitts and Nevis home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grenada to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 17% / 16% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for St. Kitts and Nevis and 2.83 for Grenada, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.1%
- 1–37.6%
- 2–25.8%
- 1–15.7%
- 0–25.7%
Recent form
St. Kitts and Nevis
- 2026-10-05T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cuba · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Cuba · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Grenada · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Bonaire · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-30T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Solomon Islands · 4-2 (W)
Grenada
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rep. Of Ireland · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-03-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kenya · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Rwanda · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-01-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Jamaica · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-11-15T00:00:00.000Z · H vs US Virgin Islands · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z · St. Kitts and Nevis 3-0 Grenada (CONCACAF Nations League)
- 2025-06-10T19:00:00.000Z · St. Kitts and Nevis 2-3 Grenada (World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF)
- 2019-11-14T19:00:00.000Z · St. Kitts and Nevis 0-0 Grenada (CONCACAF Nations League)
- 2019-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · St. Kitts and Nevis 1-2 Grenada (CONCACAF Nations League)
- 2017-12-03T00:00:00.000Z · St. Kitts and Nevis 1-9 Grenada (Friendlies)
- 2010-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · St. Kitts and Nevis 0-2 Grenada (Caribbean Cup)
World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panama | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Suriname | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Guatemala | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | El Salvador | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 1 | Curaçao | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Jamaica | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Trinidad and Tobago | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Bermuda | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -19 | 1 |
| 1 | Haiti | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Honduras | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Costa Rica | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Nicaragua | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Grenada win, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.