Energizer Park · Referee Ricardo Montero, Costa Rica · Analysis updated 16:07 UTC
St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for St. Louis City and 1.90 for Minnesota United FC, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives St. Louis City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
St. Louis City win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
St. Louis City home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Minnesota United FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St. Louis City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 20% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for St. Louis City and 1.90 for Minnesota United FC, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.6%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.8%
- 1–26.5%
- 3–15.6%
Recent form
St. Louis City
- 2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles Galaxy · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-30T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New York Red Bulls · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Toronto FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Minnesota United FC · 4-2 (W)
Minnesota United FC
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Houston Dynamo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Sounders · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles Galaxy · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs St. Louis City · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-10T00:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Dallas · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 37 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -3 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -3 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -15 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 30 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -33 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 63 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 49 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 48 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 37 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 10 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 33 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 12 | 9 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | -15 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -21 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is St. Louis City win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.