The SMISA Stadium · Analysis updated 16:58 UTC
ST Mirren vs Dundee Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for ST Mirren and 1.55 for Dundee, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Dundee the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Dundee win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ST Mirren home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dundee away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–07.8%
Recent form
ST Mirren
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundee Utd · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Motherwell · 3-3 (D)
Dundee
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Motherwell · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs ST Johnstone · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hibernian · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · ST Mirren 0-1 Dundee (Premiership)
- 2026-01-31T15:00:00.000Z · ST Mirren 0-0 Dundee (Premiership)
- 2025-11-29T15:00:00.000Z · ST Mirren 1-3 Dundee (Premiership)
- 2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · ST Mirren 1-0 Dundee (Premiership)
- 2025-04-05T14:00:00.000Z · ST Mirren 0-2 Dundee (Premiership)
- 2024-12-29T15:00:00.000Z · ST Mirren 1-2 Dundee (Premiership)
- 2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · ST Mirren 2-2 Dundee (Premiership)
- 2024-05-04T14:00:00.000Z · ST Mirren 3-1 Dundee (Premiership)
- 2024-02-07T19:45:00.000Z · ST Mirren 2-0 Dundee (Premiership)
- 2023-11-11T15:00:00.000Z · ST Mirren 0-4 Dundee (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dundee win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.