The SMISA Stadium · Referee Kevin Clancy, Scotland · Analysis updated 08:39 UTC
ST Mirren vs Motherwell Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for ST Mirren and 1.46 for Motherwell, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives ST Mirren the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.4% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ST Mirren home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Motherwell away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–07.8%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
ST Mirren
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aberdeen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundee Utd · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 1-2 (L)
Motherwell
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee Utd · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · ST Mirren 3-3 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2026-02-21T19:30:00.000Z · ST Mirren 0-5 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2026-01-03T15:00:00.000Z · ST Mirren 0-2 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2025-11-01T17:30:00.000Z · ST Mirren 4-1 Motherwell (League Cup)
- 2025-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · ST Mirren 0-0 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2025-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · ST Mirren 2-2 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2024-12-07T15:00:00.000Z · ST Mirren 0-1 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · ST Mirren 1-2 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2024-03-30T15:00:00.000Z · ST Mirren 1-1 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2023-12-16T15:00:00.000Z · ST Mirren 0-0 Motherwell (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 24 |
| 2 | Rangers | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Aberdeen | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | ST Mirren | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 10 |
| 9 | Falkirk | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 10 | Motherwell | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 12 | Hibernian | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.